Key Points from the Week:
The UK economy is showing tentative signs of improvement, with permanent hiring returning to growth for the first time in almost four years, services activity strengthening and business confidence gradually recovering. The recovery, however, remains fragile and the bond market is making that fragility impossible to ignore. Defence spending fears are fuelling gilt market turmoil, long-dated yields are at multi-decade highs and oil is once again climbing toward $100, a combination that is stalling the FTSE and raising the spectre of further tax rises in the October Budget. Prime Minister Burnham has moved to calm bond markets directly, but the pressure on Chancellor Healey’s fiscal headroom is intensifying by the week. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has been explicit that structural pressures i.e., weak productivity, ageing demographics, higher defence spending and elevated public debt are pushing borrowing costs durably higher. The Budget on 28 October now carries a weight that few fiscal statements in recent memory have matched.
UK financial services M&A remained active, with transactions spanning insurance broking, wealthtech, asset management and digital finance. In UK broking, Partners& acquired Chaseside Insurance Solutions while Tower Insurance Brokers completed its acquisition of Riskworks as it launches an ambitious buy-and-build strategy. FNZ secured $450m from existing institutional investors to accelerate investment in its wealth management technology platform following recent strategic divestments, a significant vote of confidence in its long-term positioning. Distology was acquired by Foresight Group from NorthEdge, providing fresh backing for international expansion following strong EBITDA growth. Schroders formed a wealth securities partnership with Thailand’s TTB, reinforcing the cross-border ambitions running through the sector even as domestic conditions remain uncertain. Coutts sold its Artemis UK Select fund to go passive in UK equities, a notable strategic shift from one of the country’s most established private banks, reflecting broader industry pressure on active management fees and performance.
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Welcome to HSA Advisory’s Financial Services Newsletter, your concise roundup of UK macroeconomic developments and financial services transactions.
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UK Macroeconomics
7 September 2026: Interest rate fears stall FTSE as oil climbs towards $100
– The FTSE 100 struggled for direction as investors weighed renewed interest rate concerns against rising energy prices, with higher oil costs increasing inflationary pressures and complicating expectations for the Bank of England’s monetary policy outlook
– Brent crude moved towards $100 a barrel as escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over global energy supplies, reinforcing fears that a prolonged oil shock could feed through into inflation and economic growth
– Rising oil prices created a mixed environment for UK equities, supporting energy companies while increasing pressure on consumer-facing and interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Investors remained cautious as higher input costs could squeeze margins and household spending
– Markets are increasingly focused on whether sustained energy inflation could delay expected monetary easing, with the FTSE’s near-term performance likely to remain sensitive to oil prices, geopolitical developments, inflation data and changing Bank of England rate expectations
7 September 2026: UK hiring picks up, signalling tentative improvement in business confidence
– UK hiring showed its first improvement in permanent recruitment in almost four years in August, according to the latest KPMG/Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC) survey. The permanent placements index rose to 50.5, just above the 50 threshold separating growth from decline
– The improvement was also visible in temporary recruitment, suggesting that private-sector demand for workers may finally be stabilising after a prolonged period of weakness. Public-sector vacancies, however, continued to decline
– The data add to a broader set of indicators pointing towards improving economic confidence, including stronger consumer credit, car registrations and business sentiment. The Bank of England has also reported that businesses expect to increase headcount over the coming year
– The recovery remains fragile. Total payroll employment and job vacancies are still weak, while higher energy costs, geopolitical uncertainty and the prospect of tax increases in October could undermine employers’ willingness to expand
7 September 2026: Healey urges state-owned institutions to unlock more private investment
– Chancellor John Healey is set to call on the UK’s state-backed investment institutions to play a more active role in mobilising private-sector capital, as part of his broader “active state” approach to economic growth
– The British Business Bank (BBB) will commit up to £150m to a new fund targeting fast-growing and innovative companies in northern England. Investments of £5m–£15m will support university spin-outs and other high-growth businesses, with the government expecting the fund to attract additional private capital
– Healey will also ask the British Business Bank and National Wealth Fund to increase their support for investment and innovation across the UK. The National Wealth Fund has established partnerships with regional authorities in South Yorkshire, Liverpool City Region, the North East and Cardiff Capital Region to help develop infrastructure projects
– The strategy reflects a shift from government acting primarily as a direct spender towards using public capital to crowd in private investment. Healey argues that an “active, accountable state” can remove barriers and create conditions for businesses to invest, expand and create jobs
6 September 2026: Businesses urge Burnham to scrap pension triple lock to support growth
– The British Chambers of Commerce has called for the state pension triple lock to be replaced with inflation-linked increases, arguing that the change could generate savings for the Government while helping address the UK’s weak growth and fiscal position
– The BCC estimates that moving away from the triple lock could save around £3.3 billion over two years. It wants part of the savings used to reduce employer National Insurance costs for workers aged 21 to 24 and support youth employment
– The proposal comes as the Government faces rising borrowing costs and limited fiscal headroom, with higher gilt yields increasing pressure on Chancellor John Healey to identify spending reductions or additional revenues ahead of the upcoming Budget
– Scrapping the triple lock would represent a significant political and fiscal decision, particularly as the policy protects pensions against whichever is highest among inflation, wage growth or 2.5%. The Government has nevertheless reaffirmed its commitment to retaining the guarantee
5 September 2026: Healey warns of a tough Budget as UK faces a “more dangerous world”
– Chancellor John Healey has warned that his first Budget on 28 October will require difficult choices, as the UK faces higher borrowing costs, elevated energy prices and a more uncertain geopolitical environment. He stressed that he and Prime Minister Andy Burnham are determined to meet the government’s fiscal rules
– The warning comes after a sharp rise in UK government borrowing costs. The recent bond sell-off pushed long-term gilt yields to multi-year highs, increasing the government’s debt-servicing burden and further reducing the Chancellor’s already limited fiscal headroom
– Healey is therefore under pressure to balance fiscal discipline with Burnham’s spending ambitions, particularly on social care, housing and defence. The government has already indicated that departments will need to find savings, while Healey has repeatedly emphasised the need to scrutinise public spending
– The Chancellor is also seeking to reassure financial markets and businesses that the government will maintain credibility on borrowing and debt. That is increasingly important as higher gilt yields threaten to absorb a larger share of government revenues through debt-interest payments
4 September 2026: Sterling holds firm ahead of US jobs data
– Sterling was broadly unchanged around $1.3525, after gaining 0.3% on Thursday, as traders waited for the latest US non-farm payrolls report. The data were expected to have a significant influence on the dollar and therefore the pound’s near-term direction
– A stronger-than-expected US jobs report could support the US dollar by reducing expectations for monetary easing, while weaker employment data could put downward pressure on the dollar and provide further support to sterling
– Sterling was relatively unfazed by geopolitical developments, despite continuing tensions linked to the Iran conflict and other international risks. UK bond markets were also stable, with the 10-year gilt yield around 5.14%
– The pound’s domestic outlook remains closely linked to the Bank of England. Chief Economist Huw Pill argued that an earlier rate increase could reduce the risk of needing more aggressive tightening later if inflation remains elevated. Markets were pricing roughly two BoE rate increases over the following six months, although economists still expected the Bank to hold rates at its September meeting
4 September 2026: Bailey warns structural pressures are driving UK government debt higher
– Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that advanced economies face significant long-term pressures on public finances, pointing to weak productivity and major shocks such as Covid-19 as important drivers of rising government debt
– Bailey also highlighted ageing populations and increased defence spending as structural factors adding to fiscal pressure. These are not temporary budget issues but longer-term demands that could keep government borrowing elevated
– Higher debt levels are increasingly feeding through into government borrowing costs, as investors demand higher yields to hold sovereign bonds. UK 10-year gilt yields recently reached their highest level in almost 20 years, while longer-dated yields climbed to levels last seen in the late 1990s
– The warning is particularly relevant for Chancellor John Healey ahead of the October Budget. Higher gilt yields increase the government’s debt-servicing costs and reduce the fiscal headroom available for new spending or tax cuts
4 September 2026: Defence spending fears fuel UK bond market turmoil
– Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that uncertainty over how governments will finance higher defence spending is contributing to pressure on global bond markets, alongside structural challenges including ageing populations, weak productivity, slow growth and climate-related investment needs
– UK borrowing costs have risen sharply, with 10-year gilt yields reaching 5.28% during the week, their highest level since 2007. Rising yields reflect growing investor concerns about government debt, spending requirements and the sustainability of public finances
– Britain faces additional pressure to identify funding for defence commitments, with the Government needing to address a nearly £5 billion gap in its Defence Investment Plan. Markets are increasingly focused on whether higher spending will require tax increases or additional borrowing
– The bond sell-off is also feeding into household borrowing costs, with average UK fixed mortgage rates beginning to rise as higher gilt yields push up swap rates. Persistent bond-market pressure could therefore affect consumer spending, fiscal policy and the wider economic outlook
3 September 2026: UK stocks rebound as bond rally improves risk sentiment
– The FTSE 100 gained 0.7% to 10,831.52, while the FTSE 250 also rose 0.7%, recovering from recent weakness as a global bond-market rally improved investor risk appetite
– The rally in government bonds pushed yields lower after their recent surge, easing some concerns about higher-for-longer interest rates and rising financing costs. UK 10-year gilt yields also retreated from their recent 18-year high
– Investor attention was also focused on the US jobs report, with markets assessing whether softer US employment data could reinforce expectations for easier monetary policy and further support risk assets
– The recovery offered some relief after the recent bond sell-off, but the backdrop remained fragile. UK equities continued to face pressure from elevated gilt yields, inflation concerns and uncertainty ahead of Chancellor John Healey’s October Budget
3 September 2026: FCA flags liquidity risks concentrated in UK property funds
– The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has identified a significant liquidity mismatch in parts of the UK real-estate fund sector, where investors may be able to withdraw money faster than the underlying properties can be sold
– The FCA’s analysis of more than 11,000 alternative investment funds found that around 10% of real-estate fund net asset value could be redeemed within 30 days, compared with only 7% of assets estimated to be liquid within the same period
– The regulator stressed that it did not identify a market-wide liquidity shortfall, with the mismatch concentrated in particular fund types. Property funds remain a particular area of concern because physical real estate can take considerably longer to sell during periods of market stress
– The issue has historical significance in the UK. Several property funds suspended withdrawals following the 2016 Brexit referendum and again during the Covid-19 market disruption, demonstrating how quickly redemption pressure can become problematic when investors seek cash simultaneously
3 September 2026: UK economy gains momentum, but rising cost pressures complicate BoE outlook
– Britain’s dominant services sector expanded for a second consecutive month in August, with the final S&P Global Services PMI rising to 52.5 from 52.1 in July. It was the strongest pace of growth since April, suggesting the economy is gaining momentum after a softer second quarter
– Business confidence also improved, supported by stronger spending from businesses and consumers. The composite PMI, which includes manufacturing, also reached 52.5, its highest level since April
– However, the recovery is being accompanied by renewed cost pressures. More companies reported increases in the prices they charge customers, particularly in services, raising concerns that the energy shock could feed into broader inflation
– This creates a difficult backdrop for the Bank of England. Stronger activity reduces the case for monetary easing, while accelerating input and selling-price pressures increase the risk that inflation remains above target for longer. Recent comments from BoE officials have already highlighted the possibility of needing higher rates if inflationary pressures become persistent
3 September 2026: FCA warns of concentration risk in £335bn UK private credit market
– The Financial Conduct Authority warned that concentration is increasing in the UK private credit market, which has expanded 127% over four years to £335 billion. The five largest asset managers now account for 28% of market assets, raising potential systemic concerns
– The FCA found that private credit assets available to UK investors have more than doubled since 2021, while the number of funds increased from 381 to 786. Rapid expansion has increased regulatory focus on leverage, liquidity and risk management across the sector
– Although leverage and liquidity risks are concentrated within specific funds rather than widespread across the market, the FCA highlighted a persistent group of highly leveraged private credit funds. Concentration among large managers could amplify market stress if credit conditions deteriorate
– The findings will inform the FCA’s proposed reforms to the UK alternative investment fund regime, aimed at improving oversight and transparency. The Bank of England has separately warned that refinancing pressures among private credit borrowers could tighten wider credit conditions if defaults increase
3 September 2026: UK rules out ‘exit tax’ on university spinouts moving overseas
– The UK government has ruled out introducing an “exit tax” on companies spun out of British universities that subsequently relocate or are acquired overseas, after growing concern among entrepreneurs and investors that such a levy could discourage high-growth businesses from being founded in the UK
– Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has sought to reassure the sector that the government’s priority is to create conditions that encourage innovative companies to stay and scale in Britain, rather than penalising them when they move abroad
– The issue is particularly important for the UK’s university spinout ecosystem. More than 2,000 spinouts have been created since 2010, collectively generating significant economic value and attracting billions of pounds in investment
– The proposed tax had raised concerns that it could have the opposite of its intended effect, encouraging founders and investors to incorporate or locate companies overseas from the outset to avoid future tax exposure. Venture capital investors therefore welcomed the government’s clarification
2 September 2026: UK banks increasingly pledge riskier assets for BoE cash
– British banks are increasingly using higher-risk credit assets as collateral for cash from the Bank of England, according to a Reuters review of BoE filings. The assets include loans linked to high-interest store cards, vehicle leases and securitised mortgages
– On 18 August, banks pledged £1.9bn of “Level C” collateral in the BoE’s Indexed Long-Term Repo operations – the highest-risk category accepted by the central bank. This was the largest amount since March 2020 and roughly three times the previous week’s level
– The total value of Level C collateral held by the BoE has more than doubled over the past year, from £8.7bn to £17.8bn. The increase comes as the Bank continues to unwind its quantitative-easing programme while providing a mechanism for banks to access central-bank liquidity
– The development raises questions about the quality of collateral entering the BoE’s liquidity operations. Although the Bank applies valuation haircuts and interest-rate surcharges to riskier assets, accepting a broader range of collateral potentially increases its exposure if borrowers default or asset values deteriorate
2 September 2026: UK growth outlook improves, but businesses remain reluctant to invest
– The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) upgraded its forecast for UK GDP growth in 2026 to 1.0%, from 0.9% previously, reflecting the economy’s resilience following the initial shock from the Iran war
– However, the recovery remains consumption-led rather than investment-led. The BCC expects business investment to contract by just 0.2% in 2026, an improvement from its previous forecast of a 2.2% decline, but still indicative of significant caution among companies
– The BCC expects investment to return to modest growth of 0.4% in 2027, while GDP is forecast to expand by 1.0% in both 2026 and 2027. The relatively weak investment outlook remains a key constraint on the UK’s longer-term productivity and growth prospects
– For the government, the message ahead of Healey’s October Budget is mixed: the economy is proving more resilient than feared, but businesses remain hesitant to commit capital amid geopolitical uncertainty, high costs and fiscal uncertainty. Sustained investment will be crucial if the government’s growth strategy is to translate into stronger productivity rather than simply higher consumption
2 September 2026: Burnham tries to calm bond markets as public spending fears mount
– Prime Minister Andy Burnham sought to reassure investors by reaffirming his government’s commitment to fiscal responsibility and existing fiscal rules, as UK borrowing costs reached their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis amid growing concerns over public spending
– Bond-market pressure has been intensified by rising energy prices, global inflation concerns and increased government borrowing costs. Investors are demanding higher yields on UK debt, raising questions about the government’s limited fiscal headroom ahead of the October Budget
– Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch criticised Burnham’s spending commitments, arguing that the government had yet to demonstrate how additional expenditure would be funded. Concerns were reinforced by former adviser Lord Jim O’Neill, who warned that markets were increasingly focused on debt and spending control
– The government faces difficult choices ahead of the October 28 Budget, with elevated borrowing costs potentially requiring spending restraint, higher taxes or both. Analysts warn that restoring investor confidence will require credible fiscal plans rather than political assurances alone
2 September 2026: Bond rout raises spectre of Budget tax rises
– A sharp sell-off in UK government bonds has pushed borrowing costs higher, increasing pressure on Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey ahead of October’s Budget, as investors question how the government will finance its spending commitments
– Rising gilt yields are reducing the government’s already limited fiscal headroom, meaning additional spending commitments could require higher taxes, spending cuts or greater borrowing. Markets are increasingly focused on whether ministers can demonstrate credible plans to maintain fiscal discipline
– The bond-market turmoil reflects broader concerns about government debt, inflation and higher long-term borrowing costs, with investors demanding greater compensation for holding UK debt. Persistent pressure could increase debt-servicing costs and make it harder for the government to meet its fiscal rules
– The October Budget is therefore likely to face heightened scrutiny from financial markets, with tax increases becoming a more prominent possibility if borrowing costs remain elevated. The government’s ability to reassure investors through credible fiscal measures will be crucial for market stability
1 September 2026: BoE’s Mann sees stronger growth, keeping pressure on rates
– Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said she had seen signs of stronger UK economic growth since the Bank’s latest monetary-policy meeting, alongside evidence that the labour market had stabilised
– Mann also noted that inflation had been slightly stronger than expected, reinforcing her argument for a more cautious monetary-policy stance. At the previous meeting, she was among the minority of policymakers who voted for a 25-basis-point rate increase
– Her preference is to keep rates slightly higher rather than risk allowing inflationary pressures to become entrenched, with the possibility of cutting rates later if the economy weakens
– The comments add to the increasingly mixed UK monetary-policy picture: stronger growth and sticky inflation argue for caution on rate cuts, while a still-soft labour market and elevated borrowing costs argue against tightening too aggressively. For investors, the key question is whether the recent improvement in activity proves durable enough to justify higher rates later in 2026
1 September 2026: Global bond sell-off deepens as inflation fears push borrowing costs higher
– A broad global sovereign-bond sell-off intensified as investors became increasingly concerned that higher energy prices and persistent inflation could keep interest rates elevated for longer. UK, US, German and Japanese government bond yields all moved higher
– The UK was particularly exposed, with the 30-year gilt yield reaching 5.89%, its highest level since 1998, while the 10-year yield climbed to around 5.25%. The move threatens to increase the government’s debt-servicing costs just as Chancellor John Healey prepares for the October Budget
– Japan’s 10-year government bond yield breached 3% for the first time since 1996, while longer-dated Japanese yields reached multi-decade highs. The move reflects concerns over Japanese inflation, government borrowing and the potential normalisation of monetary policy
– The sell-off reflects a combination of higher oil prices, renewed inflation expectations, elevated government debt and increased bond issuance. Geopolitical tensions around the Iran conflict are adding to the inflation risk through energy prices
1 September 2026: Private equity accelerates takeover of London-listed companies
– Private equity firms are increasingly targeting UK-listed companies, with Bodycote and Gamma Communications both agreeing to takeovers on the same day. The deals add to a broader wave of acquisitions that has taken the value of UK-listed M&A to around $182bn in 2026, already well above 2025’s total
– Veritas Capital agreed to acquire industrial group Bodycote for £1.85bn including debt, offering 940p per share and outbidding rival CVC. The offer represents a substantial premium to Bodycote’s undisturbed share price
– UK private equity firm Epiris agreed a roughly £1.1bn acquisition of Gamma Communications, while Norway’s DNO separately agreed to acquire Capricorn Energy for approximately £292m
– The wave of takeovers highlights the persistent valuation discount attached to UK-listed companies, with relatively low multiples and a weaker pound making London-listed businesses attractive to overseas buyers and private equity
1 September 2026: UK banks intensify crackdown on Covid loan defaulters
– Barclays, Starling Bank and HSBC have filed almost 70 winding-up petitions since June against companies that defaulted on taxpayer-backed Covid loans, following government pressure to recover more of the losses
– Many of the businesses targeted appear to have ceased trading years ago or never filed company accounts, raising concerns that some Bounce Back Loan recipients were fraudulent or had been set up primarily to obtain government-backed finance
– The Bounce Back Loan Scheme, introduced in 2020, provided businesses with loans of £2,000–£50,000 with limited initial due diligence and a full government guarantee against losses. Estimated fraud and error losses have reached around £2.8bn, with the true figure potentially higher
– Starling has filed 34 petitions, while Barclays has filed 26 and HSBC seven. The actions are being coordinated with the British Business Bank and Insolvency Service, which are seeking cases where legal recovery could still generate returns for taxpayers
1 September 2026: LSEG moves to tokenise UK equities in partnership with Payward
– London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) plans to introduce tokenised UK equity structures, partnering with Payward, the parent of Kraken, to explore blockchain-based ways of accessing and trading London-listed shares
– The initiative is designed to broaden global access to UK-listed companies by bringing traditional equities closer to the digital-asset ecosystem. Payward’s xStocks platform is expected to provide tokenised representations of major UK shares, with the initial focus on the 100 largest listed companies
– LSEG is also developing LSE 24, a new extended-hours trading venue expected to launch in 2027, subject to regulatory approval. Tokenised products could eventually trade through this infrastructure, potentially enabling much longer trading hours and more seamless access for international and crypto-native investors
– Importantly, LSEG is exploring structures that preserve the shareholder rights, protections and governance standards associated with conventional public equities. It is also assessing how its Digital Securities Depository could support settlement and asset servicing
UK Financial Services Key Transactions
7 September 2026: Schroders and ttb Wealth Securities form Thailand partnership
– Schroders and ttb Wealth Securities have formed a long-term strategic partnership to develop wealth and investment solutions for Thailand’s HNW and UHNW clients. The firms will establish a joint investment forum and initially launch a bespoke global multi-asset portfolio, combining Schroders’ global public and private markets expertise with ttb’s local investor knowledge
3 September 2026: Investors back FNZ’s $450m WealthTech transformation
– FNZ has secured $450 million in new equity funding from existing institutional shareholders including La Caisse, CPP Investments, Generation Investment Management and Motive Partners. The capital will support FNZ’s technology platform, workforce and product development as it sharpens its focus on core wealth-management technology following several strategic divestments
3 September 2026: Partners& acquires chartered broker Chaseside Insurance Solutions
– Partners& has acquired Chaseside Insurance Solutions, a Borehamwood-based chartered broker serving commercial and private clients. The acquisition adds a five-person team led by managing director Carin Johnson, strengthening Partners&’ Hertfordshire presence and continuing its strategy of expanding through specialist, owner-led broker acquisitions
2 September 2026: Tower acquires Wilmslow broker in first buy-and-build deal
– Tower Insurance Brokers has completed its acquisition of Riskworks, adding more than £5 million in GWP and taking Tower’s run-rate GWP beyond £40 million. The deal strengthens its North West presence and specialist capabilities, while launching a buy-and-build strategy targeting £75–100 million GWP through further UK acquisitions and continued organic growth
1 September 2026: Distology secures Foresight backing after NorthEdge exit
– Distology, a UK cybersecurity value-added distributor serving the UK and Northern Europe, has been acquired by Foresight Group from NorthEdge. NorthEdge’s exit marks its ninth technology realisation, following a period in which Distology delivered 48% compound annual EBITDA growth, expanded its cybersecurity vendor portfolio and strengthened its European footprint. Foresight will support further investment in people, technology and international expansion
1 September 2026: Coutts sells Artemis UK Select as it shifts towards passive UK equities
– Coutts has sold its position in the Artemis UK Select Fund after 12 years, replacing the actively managed strategy with a passive approach to UK equities. The move reflects a broader push towards lower-cost, index-based investing within Coutts’ portfolios, while Artemis UK Select remains a high-conviction, actively managed fund
A Word from Our Founder & Managing Director
A bond rout, oil approaching $100, a Prime Minister calming markets and a Budget that now carries the weight of every fiscal decision deferred this year as the October statement is no longer just a fiscal event. It is a defining moment for confidence in the UK’s economic direction. Yet financial services continues to transact, partner and build with a consistency that reflects structural conviction rather than short-term sentiment. At HSA Advisory, we help clients position ahead of exactly these moments by bringing senior-led insight to M&A, cross-border growth and capital raising where preparation and decisiveness define who leads what comes next. The Budget arrives in days. What follows will set the tone for the year ahead.
Himanshu Singh, Founder & Managing Director
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Pulse Check
Tentative UK growth recovery meets elevated borrowing costs, persistent inflation risks and intense financial-services consolidation.
We’d love to hear your thoughts.
Source: Financial Times, Reuters, The Times, Insurance Times, Insurance Business UK, The Guardian, Insurance Age, CityWire, FinTech Global.
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