Key Points from the Week:
UK financial services gained fresh momentum this week, even as macro conditions remained mixed. Early-stage fintech activity stood out, with Sencillo securing a £350,000 pre-seed round led by Fuel Ventures to scale its responsible education-finance platform. Investor appetite for purpose-led financial solutions continues to build, signalling growing focus on platforms tackling long-term household challenges such as education affordability and financial wellbeing.
At the same time, markets remain cautious in the lead up to the Budget, as businesses and investors await fiscal cues that could shape borrowing costs and consumer sentiment. Despite the uncertainty, targeted deployment of capital across fintech, wealth management, and insurtech highlights the sector’s resilience and adaptability within a shifting economic landscape.
Welcome to HSA Advisory’s Financial Services Newsletter, your concise roundup of the UK macroeconomic developments and financial services transactions.
Sign up to get the newsletter delivered every Tuesday. For insights, M&A support, or advisory discussions, reach out to Himanshu Singh, Founder & Managing Director, at himanshu.singh@hsa-advisory.co.uk
UK Macroeconomics
24 November 2025: Pound steady as markets await Britain’s Budget announcement
– The pound held broadly stable against the dollar and euro as investors paused major positioning ahead of the upcoming UK Budget. Traders said the currency’s steadiness reflects balanced expectations: tighter fiscal measures are seen as likely, but not yet severe enough to shift market direction meaningfully
– Market participants report subdued FX volatility, with sterling trading in a narrow range as they await clarity on tax rises, spending cuts and fiscal targets. Analysts note that sentiment hinges on whether Chancellor Rachel Reeves prioritises aggressive consolidation or opts for a more gradual path to rebuild fiscal credibility
– Bond markets showed mild caution, with gilt yields inching higher amid concerns that any unexpected tightening could slow growth further. However, investors also see the potential for stabilisation if Reeves delivers a coherent plan to address borrowing pressures without derailing already fragile economic momentum
– Economists stress that sterling’s steadiness masks deep uncertainty about the Budget’s impact on investment, consumer demand and long-term debt sustainability. Markets are expected to react sharply once policy details are released, particularly if the measures diverge from expectations of targeted tax increases and disciplined spending controls
24 November 2025: FTSE regains footing as US rate-cut hopes offset Budget nervousness
– The FTSE 100 recovered early-week losses as renewed expectations of a potential US Federal Reserve rate cut supported global risk sentiment. Softer US inflation data improved investor appetite, helping UK equities stabilise despite domestic caution ahead of Rachel Reeves’ high-stakes Budget next week
– Traders noted that rate-sensitive sectors such as housebuilders, utilities, and consumer stocks led gains, reflecting hopes that easing global financial conditions could soften borrowing costs. The rebound also helped offset weakness seen earlier in the week when forecasts of tighter UK fiscal measures weighed on sentiment
– Market analysts said Budget uncertainty remains a key drag, with expectations of tax rises, potential spending restraints, and tighter fiscal rules limiting upside for UK assets. However, investors are balancing this against improving external conditions, notably from the US, which remains a major driver of global liquidity
– Sterling traded broadly steady, while gilt yields fluctuated as markets attempted to price the interaction of US monetary easing and UK fiscal tightening. Overall, the FTSE’s rebound underscores how external macro forces are currently providing a buffer against domestic policy anxieties heading into Budget week
24 November 2025: Investors warn UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves against delaying fiscal pain in UK Budget
– Institutional investors cautioned that postponing difficult tax and spending decisions could undermine the UK’s fiscal credibility. They argue that gradualism may reassure households in the short term but risks worsening borrowing pressures, particularly with gilt markets already sensitive to signals of policy hesitation
– Analysts note that gilt investors want a clearer roadmap for repairing the public finances, including credible medium-term targets. Delaying consolidation, they say, could push borrowing costs higher if markets perceive Reeves to be prioritising political caution over sustainable debt management
– Fund managers stressed that the UK cannot rely indefinitely on favourable global conditions, warning that any shock, such as higher global rates or weaker growth – could expose vulnerabilities. Several highlighted that recent bond-market volatility demonstrates how quickly sentiment can shift when fiscal plans lack detail or conviction
– Economists emphasise that Reeves must balance political promises with market discipline. While front-loaded tax rises or cuts could hurt growth, avoiding tough measures may prolong uncertainty and deter investment. Investors insist the Budget must set out a firm path to stabilise debt and restore long-term confidence
24 November 2025: Rachel Reeves’s welfare giveaway to top £15bn
– The Treasury is preparing a welfare package exceeding £15bn, driven by commitments to uprate benefits, expand targeted support, and compensate for inflation-linked cost increases. Officials say the scale reflects accumulated pressures after years of suppressed uprating and persistent household vulnerability across lower-income groups
– Analysts warn the package will tighten fiscal headroom already strained by weak growth, high borrowing and productivity downgrades. With Reeves simultaneously pledging fiscal responsibility, markets are watching how she balances social support with tax rises or spending cuts, especially as gilt investors remain highly sensitive to fiscal credibility signals
– Business groups have expressed concern that a large welfare outlay may crowd out pro-growth measures unless paired with reforms. Firms emphasise that investment incentives, planning changes and labour-market support must not be sacrificed, arguing that long-term competitiveness hinges on more than short-term household relief
– Political strategists note the move may strengthen Reeves’s position with vulnerable households but could revive debates over the fairness of tax burdens. As expectations build for a tighter Budget, the welfare expansion is shaping narratives around redistribution, economic strategy and the government’s ability to sustain both stability and growth
24 November 2025: UK ministers back Heathrow Airport’s £49bn plan for third runway
– Ministers have given political backing to Heathrow’s revised £49bn expansion plan, marking the clearest signal yet that the government sees the third runway as a core piece of long-term national infrastructure. Officials argue the project will boost competitiveness and strengthen the UK’s global aviation capacity
– The updated proposal includes new environmental safeguards, redesigned flight paths, and stricter noise-mitigation targets. Heathrow has committed to a multi-stage carbon-reduction strategy to address public concerns, promising lower-emission aircraft incentives and expanded public-transport connectivity for passengers and staff
– Business groups welcomed the decision, saying expanded airport capacity is vital for trade, investment flows, and tourism growth. They argue that without a third runway, the UK risks losing ground to European hubs such as Paris and Amsterdam, both of which continue to scale up international flight capacity
– Critics say the £49bn price tag raises fiscal and regulatory risks, warning that taxpayers could ultimately shoulder costs if commercial financing tightens. Environmental campaigners also argue that expansion conflicts with climate goals, adding that legal challenges and local opposition could delay the project significantly despite ministerial support
22 November 2025: Moody’s affirms UK’s Aa3 rating ahead of Budget
– Moody’s affirmed the UK’s Aa3 rating with a stable outlook, noting that despite weak growth and high borrowing, the country retains strong institutional capacity and deep financial markets. The agency warned, however, that sustained fiscal slippage could eventually pressure the rating if reforms fail to materialise
– Analysts said the decision reflects confidence in the UK’s ability to implement correction measures, but also highlights rising vulnerabilities. Moody’s flagged sluggish productivity, persistent deficits and structurally higher interest costs as ongoing risks that the government must address in its forthcoming fiscal strategy
– Investors interpreted the affirmation as a short-term stabiliser for gilt markets, which have been jittery ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s Budget. Many stressed that the rating could come under renewed scrutiny if the Budget lacks a credible plan for narrowing the fiscal gap and rebuilding resilience
– Economists emphasised that maintaining the Aa3 rating should not be seen as a signal of comfort. Moody’s outlined that long-term sustainability depends on stronger growth and decisive fiscal consolidation. Markets will assess both the ambition and realism of Reeves’s measures, especially given the UK’s fragile economic backdrop and constrained policy space
21 November 2025: UK borrowing climbs to £116.8 bn for April-October, highest since pandemic
– Latest ONS data show public sector borrowing reaching £116.8bn for April-October, the highest level since the pandemic period. Economists say the rise reflects weaker tax receipts, swollen welfare spending and persistently high debt-interest costs, leaving the Treasury with limited fiscal headroom before the Budget
– Analysts warn that borrowing is outstripping the Office for Budget Responsibility’s projections, increasing pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to outline credible consolidation measures. Markets fear that without firmer action, the UK risks drifting into structurally higher deficits that could push gilt yields higher and test investor confidence
– Investors note that the timing is particularly challenging, with growth stagnating and households already bracing for tax changes. Many say Reeves faces a delicate balancing act: tightening too aggressively risks deepening economic weakness, but delaying action risks further deterioration in the fiscal outlook and rising market scrutiny
– Economists stress that the figures underscore the urgency of a coherent medium-term plan to stabilise debt. They argue that targeted tax rises, controlled spending, and stronger productivity reforms are essential to avoid prolonged fiscal strain, especially as global borrowing costs remain elevated and economic buffers continue to thin
21 November 2025: Analysts say tax rises ‘inevitable’ after surge in public borrowing
– Economists warned that the sharp rise in public borrowing leaves the Chancellor with little choice but to raise taxes in the Budget. They argue that weak revenues, high welfare costs and elevated debt-interest payments have eroded fiscal space, making meaningful consolidation unavoidable despite political sensitivity
– Analysts highlighted that borrowing continues to run well above OBR expectations, increasing the risk of market unease if the government avoids tough decisions. Many note that gilt investors are already alert to signs of fiscal drift, and delaying action could push yields higher and tighten financial conditions
– Commentators say Reeves must choose between broad-based tax increases or more targeted measures, but agree that some form of revenue uplift is now unavoidable. With growth flatlining and productivity weak, relying on economic expansion alone to repair the public finances is seen as unrealistic and potentially destabilising
– Market strategists emphasise that a credible medium-term plan is essential to restoring confidence. They warn that half-measures could prolong uncertainty, deter investment and risk further borrowing overruns. Clear signals on tax policy, spending discipline and long-term fiscal sustainability will be critical to maintaining stability into 2026
21 November 2025: Britain’s tax system combines the worst of the US and Scandinavia
– Economists argue the UK now mirrors a hybrid of high Scandinavian-style tax burdens without matching levels of public services, while also adopting US-style complexity and loopholes. This combination, they say, leaves households heavily taxed yet frustrated by inconsistent service quality and administrative inefficiency
– Analysts highlight that frozen thresholds, rising NICs, and stealth taxes have pushed overall tax pressure to multi-decade highs. However, unlike Nordic systems, the UK lacks broad-based wealth taxation or transparent social models, creating a sense of imbalance between contributions and the public benefits voters expect
– Businesses complain the system discourages investment by offering neither competitive US-level incentives nor the predictability found in Scandinavian regimes. Frequent policy shifts, temporary reliefs and unclear long-term frameworks have eroded confidence, leaving companies uncertain about capital allocation and future expansion decisions
– Policy experts warn that without structural reform, the UK risks entrenching a system that is expensive, distortionary and difficult to navigate. They argue the next Budget must simplify rules, broaden bases and deliver coherent long-term plans to restore trust, competitiveness and fairness across both households and firms
20 November 2025: UK consumer confidence drops as public braces for a ‘difficult’ Budget
– UK consumer confidence weakened sharply in late November as households anticipate tax rises and tighter fiscal measures in next week’s Budget. Surveys show growing anxiety over disposable incomes, with expectations for higher living costs and subdued wage growth weighing on near-term spending sentiment
– Retailers report softer footfall and lower discretionary purchases as consumers delay big-ticket spending ahead of fiscal announcements. Analysts say the mood reflects broad uncertainty, with many households bracing for potential cuts to benefits, reduced thresholds, or further freezes that could squeeze real incomes
– Economists warn the drop in confidence risks undermining already fragile growth, given consumption accounts for a large share of UK GDP. Even modest declines in sentiment can translate into weaker sales and reduced service-sector activity, particularly when borrowing costs remain relatively elevated
– Markets note that public caution adds pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to balance credibility with support for demand. While investors expect tax rises aimed at rebuilding fiscal headroom, they caution that overly aggressive tightening could deepen the confidence slump and prolong the UK’s slow-growth trajectory
19 November 2025: UK inflation eases to 3.6% in October, first decline in five months
– Annual consumer-price inflation in the UK decelerated to 3.6% in October, down from 3.8% in September, marking the first decrease in inflation levels since April. The moderation, led by lower energy and food price inflation, offers some relief for households and suggests inflation may have peaked
– Despite the headline drop, underlying inflation pressures remain elevated – services inflation lingers above 5%, and wage growth continues to run ahead of trend in key sectors. Analysts caution that the path to the Bank of England’s 2% target remains long and will require further moderation across multiple components
– Markets reacted cautiously: sterling remained broadly flat, while expectations for an early rate cut increased modestly. However, investors noted that the Bank of England is unlikely to act prematurely given ongoing labour-market tightness and potential rebound risks from food and commodity prices
– For Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the data adds complexity ahead of the Budget. While easing inflation gives some fiscal flexibility, weakened growth and household strain mean the government must still balance measures to support demand with maintaining credibility on inflation control and debt sustainability
19 November 2025: FCA pension scheme invests less in UK stocks than private-sector peers
– The Financial Conduct Authority’s pension scheme has a notably smaller allocation to UK equities compared with similar private-sector schemes. Analysts say this reflects a long-running shift away from domestic stocks driven by concerns over liquidity, valuation weakness and stronger returns available in global markets
– The figures highlight an uncomfortable contrast as the regulator publicly encourages institutions to support UK capital markets while its own scheme pursues more internationally diversified strategies. Critics argue the gap underscores structural issues in the UK market that policymakers have yet to resolve
– Investment advisers note that UK equities continue to suffer from low earnings growth, persistent outflows and limited tech exposure. These factors make global allocations more attractive for pension trustees focused on long-term returns and risk-adjusted performance, regardless of political pressure to “buy British.”
– The government’s push for greater domestic investment-via reforms to pensions, listings rules and capital-market incentives-faces credibility challenges when key public bodies allocate elsewhere. Economists warn that without deeper reforms to boost productivity, scale and market depth, institutional investors will remain reluctant to meaningfully increase UK equity exposure
18 November 2025: Bond markets could force Rachel Reeves ‘to do a secondary budget’, City investor warns
– A prominent City investor has warned that without a convincing fiscal plan in next week’s Budget, the UK could face renewed debt-market stress, potentially forcing Chancellor Rachel Reeves into a secondary fiscal statement. The threat underscores deep concern over credibility among gilt investors
– The warning stems from elevated government borrowing and a narrowing fiscal buffer, raising fears that any misstep could trigger a spike in contention for funding and a sharp rise in long-term yields. The investor argued that the government must deliver both ambition and realism in its fiscal roadmap
– Analysts suggest that a second Budget would be a major embarrassment for the Treasury yet may prove necessary if investors demand more aggressive spending cuts or revenue measures. They argue that markets now expect not just short-term fixes but medium-term clarity on debt sustainability
– Economists said Reeves must strike a delicate balance: delivering a Budget that is credible without undermining growth or consumer sentiment. Investors are likely to reward a bold but measured plan – but may punish signals of delay or defensive policymaking
18 November 2025: UK cost-of-living and inflation expectations elevated, according to BoE report
– The BoE’s latest survey shows households still feel significant cost-of-living strain, with expectations that inflation will remain above target for the coming year. Elevated food, energy and rent costs continue to dominate sentiment, limiting confidence despite early signs of broader price stabilisation
– Respondents reported little improvement in real purchasing power, reflecting ongoing pressure from stubbornly high essential expenses. The persistence of these concerns highlights that households remain cautious, suggesting any future monetary easing may take time to translate into meaningful financial relief across income groups
– Long-term inflation expectations also remain sticky, with many households bracing for continued price rises across utilities, transport and groceries. This entrenched outlook risks complicating BoE policymaking as it balances supporting growth with preventing expectations from drifting too far from the 2% inflation target
– The report warns that weakened consumer sentiment could dampen discretionary spending heading into 2026. Despite broader economic resilience, households’ elevated inflation fears and reduced savings buffers may slow recovery momentum, potentially affecting retail demand, borrowing appetite and overall confidence in the post-Budget environment
18 November 2025: Business chiefs put spending plans on ice and warn they’ll only invest if Budget signals real support for growth
– UK business leaders have paused major investment decisions, citing uncertainty around the upcoming Budget and doubts over the government’s growth strategy. Firms say they need firm commitments on tax stability, planning reform and incentives before releasing capital earmarked for 2025–27 expansion projects
– Executives warn that sentiment has weakened sharply as borrowing costs remain high and demand looks fragile. Many companies are adopting a defensive stance, delaying hiring, acquisitions and infrastructure upgrades until they see evidence that fiscal policy will prioritise competitiveness and productivity gains
– Business groups stress that clearer long-term signals are essential to unlock private-sector investment, particularly in manufacturing, energy and technology. They argue that without predictable funding frameworks and regulatory clarity, the UK risks falling behind international competitors already offering more attractive industrial and innovation incentives
– Leaders caution that failure to deliver pro-growth measures could extend the current freeze in corporate spending well into next year. They note that firms stand ready to invest but require Budget assurances on stability, targeted tax relief and reduced policy volatility to justify taking on new risks
18 November 2025: UK Raises Bank Deposit Guarantee to £120,000 and Boosts Compensation Scheme Contributions
– The UK government has increased the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) deposit guarantee limit from £85,000 to £120,000. The change aims to strengthen consumer protection following recent market volatility and restore confidence after concerns over bank resilience and liquidity risks
– Regulators said the higher guarantee aligns the UK more closely with European standards and better reflects inflation-adjusted savings levels. Officials noted that nearly 98% of UK depositors will now be fully protected, reducing the risk of bank runs during periods of financial stress
– To support the expanded coverage, banks and building societies will face increased FSCS levy contributions. Industry groups warn that higher charges could squeeze margins, potentially leading to more expensive mortgages and small-business lending as institutions offset rising compliance costs
– Treasury officials argue the reforms enhance financial stability by boosting confidence in the banking system, especially ahead of a demanding fiscal period. They maintain that stronger depositor protection complements the government’s broader strategy to reinforce market trust amid global economic uncertainty and domestic budget pressures
UK Financial Services Key Transactions
24 November 2025: The Private Office explores sale after 1,200% profit surge
– UK wealth firm The Private Office (TPO) is reportedly seeking potential buyers following a dramatic increase in profits, driven by strong growth in investment-outsourcing. The firm’s founders are now working with advisers to assess strategic options, including a full or partial exit, amid strong earnings momentum
24 November 2025: Singaporean owned PhillipCapital bids £6m to take Walker Crips private
– PhillipCapital UK (backed by its Singapore parent) has made an all-cash offer of 14p per share to acquire Walker Crips for about £5.96 million, valuing the firm at an ~87% premium. The board unanimously supports the deal, which would take the long-established wealth manager off the London Stock Exchange
24 November 2025: Blue Owl considers reviving merger of its private-credit funds
– Blue Owl Capital is reportedly exploring a renewed merger between its publicly traded fund OBDC and its private vehicle Blue Owl Capital Corp II, contingent on OBDC’s share price rising to close the gap with its NAV. The move follows investor backlash over the initial plan that could have triggered ~20% losses for some shareholders
21 November 2025: Saba takes a 5% stake in Pantheon International to push for value realisation
– Activist hedge fund Saba Capital disclosed a 5.08% holding in the UK-listed private equity trust Pantheon International (PIN), largely via derivatives. Saba is urging the board to sell part of PIN’s portfolio into the secondary market and use the proceeds for buybacks, to narrow the ~29% discount to net asset value
21 November 2025: Capital on Tap Closes £500m ABS Deal to Boost SMB Credit
– London‑based fintech Capital on Tap successfully closed “London Cards 3,” a £500 million asset‑backed securitisation backed by its business‑credit‑card receivables. It’s Europe’s largest non‑bank credit‑card ABS, giving the company strong capital to scale product development and support small and medium enterprises
20 November 2025: Digital MGA Acquires Bolton-Based Family Broker
– Insurtech MGA Digital Risks has bought Bolton-based broker Swinton Commercial (part of the Swinton group), adding its SME and commercial book. The acquisition lets Digital Risks deepen its market presence in the North of England while leveraging Swinton’s long-standing client relationships and broker expertise
20 November 2025: British Business Bank Targets £200m First Close for Growth Fund
– The British Business Bank is aiming for a £200 million first close on its new British Growth Partnership Fund I, with cornerstone commitments from Aegon UK, NatWest’s Cushon Master Trust, and M&G. The fund will focus on investing in high‑growth UK companies across science, tech, and innovation sectors
20 November 2025: UK government will buy tech to boost AI sector in £100m growth push
– Liz Kendall announced a £100 million “first customer” scheme where the government commits to purchasing British-made AI hardware once performance standards are met, aiming to stimulate domestic innovation and position the UK as a leader in AI-intensive sectors such as life sciences, financial services and defence
20 November 2025: Private markets firms gather $740bn from wealth market
– Private-markets managers have amassed more than $740bn from wealthy investors, reflecting a major shift toward private equity, credit, and infrastructure products among high-net-worth clients. The surge highlights rising demand for alternative assets and the growing push by listed private-markets firms to tap global wealth channels for long-term, scalable capital
19 November 2025: Greater Manchester to launch £1bn public investment fund
– The Greater Manchester mayor has unveiled a £1 billion investment fund aimed at boosting regional growth through loans and equity for commercial, residential, and lab sites; early commitments include £44 million for the former Kendals building and £34 million for Victoria North housing, funded by devolved grants, pension fund capital and business-rate borrowing
19 November 2025: Condukt Raises US$10m to Power Perpetual KYB Automation
– London‑based compliance startup Condukt secured a $10 million seed round led by Lightspeed Venture Partners and MMC Ventures (with Cocoa Ventures also participating). Its real‑time data platform, powered by AI agents, enables continuous “always‑on” KYB checks and compliance monitoring, replacing static periodic reviews with automated risk insights
18 November 2025: TMT ID Raises £30m from BGF to Expand Digital‑Trust Platform
– Mobile data and identity‑intelligence firm TMT ID secured a £30 million growth investment from BGF to accelerate its global expansion, especially in the US, and to further develop its fraud‑prevention and real‑time age/KYC verification products, serving over 260 customers worldwide
18 November 2025: Howden Acquires Aviva‑Backed Church of Scotland Insurance Scheme
– Howden has agreed to take over Church of Scotland Insurance Services (COSIS), which had offered bespoke property insurance via a scheme with Aviva. The move includes transferring all COSIS operational staff into Howden’s Scotland commercial team, ensuring continuity for over 1,500 church congregations
18 November 2025: Sencillo Raises £350K Pre‑Seed to Expand Education‑Finance Platform
– London‑based fintech Sencillo secured ~£350,000 in a pre‑seed round led by Fuel Ventures to build a responsible finance platform helping parents plan, fund, and manage the full cost of their children’s education – from nursery to university
A Word from Our Founder & Managing Director
The sustained momentum in early-stage UK fintech illustrated this week by Sencillo’s £350K raise to scale accessible, education-focused finance speaks to a clear reorientation of capital toward mission-led innovation. Even in a volatile macro environment, investors are backing models that address real household pressures, from rising education costs to the need for greater clarity, affordability, and long-term financial discipline. At HSA Advisory, the focus is on helping clients turn this shifting landscape into a strategic advantage. Whether you are preparing for a capital raise, assessing acquisition opportunities, or rethinking your market positioning, our senior-led team provides the independent perspective, structured thinking, and transaction experience needed to move with clarity and conviction.
Himanshu Singh, Founder & Managing DirectorPulse Check
Will investor appetite for mission-driven fintechs like Sencillo strengthen further, or will tighter fiscal conditions start to cool early-stage funding momentum?
We’d love to hear your thoughts.
Source: Financial Times, Reuters, The Times, Insurance Times, Insurance Business UK, The Guardian, Insurance Age, CityWire, FinTech Global.
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